Thanks to Mark Rose for this
I have written a number of times about the usefulness of the Phillips GSADF test for bubble detection. It has been used extensivly for bubble detection. google “gsadf bubble” if you dont believe me. So… Continue reading
One argument that can be made on house prices is that its the year-year % change that is relevant, not the month-month. So here is that data for Ireland. Feel free to draw your own conclusions…..
In September 2012 the Irish Government finally published a reasonably comprehensive register of residential home sales. We now have 6 m data on property prices after this. While this chart here, which shows the cumulative 6m change pre and post publication is grossly unscientific, there does seem to be some effect. This cant be all down to the local propert tax as this was well flagged for some time. Would be worth a proper examination…
The Central Bank has brought out the latest figures on mortgage arrears and they are not pretty. Lets look at the private home mortgages – As of september 17% of all mortgages are in arrears, that is 135k out of 760k. By value it is 15%. Those over 90 days in arrears, those who are rapidly slipping into total default mode is 86k. As a % of total numbers in arrears the over 90 days is now 63% of the total , compared to 40% in september 2009.
This is horrific. When will it end? If there is any comfort to be taken it is that the rate of increase in arrears has moderated, with a blip in the last quarter. See the chart below
If we look at the last 4 quarters the quarter-quarter change in the % of mortgages in arrears (either in total or over 90 days) has moderated by about 8% per quarter. If we take the dynamics of the last 4-5 quarters and project them forward we will see the total number of mortgages in arrears peaking only in December 2014 – two full years ahead – at 23% of all mortgage holders. How long it would take to start to fall is anyones guess….
So – with two more austerity budgets to go, with the number of mortgage holders whose credit history is shot heading for north of 20%, it will be quite some time yet before any corners are turned. While we must sort out the national government finances the mortgage crisis cannot be let fester. What odds the government taking bold radical steps to solve this?
So now that we have some more transparency in the housing price area, with the publication of the property price database, where do people see the average house price going? Will greater transparency via increased volume result in prices going up or will people decide that the market is still a buyers market and bid down? Ill leave this up for the evening… Please direct people to it.
Erk : NAMAwinelake now suggests NAMA may be balance sheet insolvent… Read on….
NAMA was required to deliver to the Department of Finance its quarterly and annual management accounts for 2011 by 31st March, 2012 so it is likely that they are now resting on Minister for Finance Michael Noonan’s desk. Last year the annual management accounts were published on 4th May – it is unclear on here why there is any delay at all in the Department of Finance, but they have other tasks occupying their time – for example, we’re still waiting for an explanation for the €3.6bn error in the national accounts uncovered at the start of November 2011. In addition to NAMA’s management accounts, which will be published shortly, we will get an annual report but we must wait until the summer for that. Both the latest management accounts and the annual report will, for the first time in 2011, make provision for what NAMA calls its “impairment charge” – the…
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