Staycation NOW

You know you want to….

Drowning , or Second Waving at Covid?

Academics (covid) waving at the media…

The WHO give an average time for symptoms of COVID to show as being 5-6 days. The 14 day issue comes from a proper abundance of caution. So, given that we are now nearly a month into a gradual reopening of the country, we should be seeing a second wave? We have been told by the public health media that this is “imminent“. One even stated we are in a second wave. This is despite in fact that there is no accepted definition of what actually constitutes a wave of disease. So where are we?

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Today there were six cases. Six. At the height of this we were having closer to 600. So I’m not quite sure what biomedical statistics equate 6 with an increase

Living in a gelotopoicracy

The absolute rolling clown show that is the travel “green list” shows very clearly that when it comes to how to navigate Ireland out of the pandemic induced mess, there is no plan. There is no plan for a plan. We live in a gelotopoicracy. Actually that is unfair, as when the clowns come out in the ring they have a well worked out routine, rather than winging it all the time forever. We have a governing body which has no plan. They don’t even pretend to have one. Having spent the crucial months of the pandemic selfindulging in a lanigan’s ball of peolitical kabuki the system now is asleep at the wheel, literally in some cases.

Does my curve look flat in this?

Does it? Was the point not to do this? Of course the pandemic is not over but this suggests that so far the opening up of the country on 29/June has not resulted in a second wave. So far.

Datasource : https://data.gov.ie/dataset?q=covid&sort=score+desc%2C+metadata_created+desc

R – its only a data point.

So there is a LOT of panic and fear around this weekend. Again it is important to stand back and let the heads cool. NPHET have warned that “the R-number, or the reproductive rate of the virus, has increased above 1 to potentially as high as 1.8” and Bad Things might happen. Well… maybe

What if…we have already “crushed the curve”?

Back at the start of this pandemic we were told (quite correctly) that the main aim of the restrictions to liberty and commerce was to buy time. We were (quite corectly) told that there was a danger of an out of control surge overwhelming the health system. Particular concern was raised about ICU bed shortages with a crash effort being made to upgrade that bottleneck.

Irish hotel prices summer 2020

The Irish hotel industry is saying that they are at 25% occupancy for the summer. The loss of international tourists is a huge blow of course. But I wonder if charging nearly €800 for 4 midweek nights bed and breakfast in a 3-star hotel is really going to entice the staycationing Irish tourist??

Are we on the cusp of the second wave of COVID?

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Pictures above are of daily deaths, 7 and 14 day moving averages of same. As numbers get smaller things like R0, shortterm moving averages and so on become noisier. The law of small numbers as it were.