We don’t know how much serviced land, land ready for housing, there is. The last annual data series end in 2012, with a survey (in a different format) from 2014.. But we do know more recent data on the following 10 things, none of which , I would argue, are more important than solving the housing crisis.
The old joke, and maybe not so funny, is that economic forecasting is there to make astrology seem accurate. To economic forecasting we might consider adding the dire premonitions of ISAG Gerry Killeen, who is a world class expert in malaria (bacterial, insect borne) not covid (viral, aerosol) .
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40255088.html was a prediction on 31-March, a month ago.
“Can we afford to reopen schools where we are right now? I would say no,” Mr Killeen said.“There is no good reason to believe that it won’t put us back into exponential growth. There’s no logical reason; it doesn’t add up.”
Hmmm.. On that day (per the FT tracker we had 11 cases per 100k ; a month later we have 1 case per 100k , 7 day average. There ws exponential growth, downwards.
Then we had this https://extra.ie/2020/06/08/news/irish-news/dr-gerry-killeen-accelerated-reopening “He said Ireland is ‘inevitably’ going to be hit with a second Covid-19 wave, which could bring 1,000 deaths a day unless it is stopped.” That was 8 June 2020. “‘I can guarantee that if you follow the plan as New scheduled, even for the five phases, I can guarantee you a second wave, 100% – not 99%, 100%.”
We did get a second wave. But it was 7m later and, thankfully, we didnt get 1000 deaths a day. Despite it being guaranteed.
I get it. When the media come calling to an academic its flattering. There is a temptation to answer regardless. And the more compelling a soundbite, the more they call. Add to that “if it bleeds it leads” and you have a perfect trap. I know. I have been that soldier.
That said, one howlingly wrong prediction is one thing. Happens. Two? Hmm. Time to think about what one’s interactions are with the media.
Willing suspension of disbelief is a fine thing when one is reading a magic realist novel or watching a MCU caper. Its harder to take when listening to the breathless “be grand” platitudes of the government around Summer 2021.Continue reading
Of course, that presupposes that we can identify them! A group of researchers at Stanford have made a recent attempt to do just that. The paper is available, unpaywalled, here. They produce a composite indicator to rank authors. So where are the leading authors? Unsurprisingly, the USA, UK and Germany come out tops. But Ireland does respectably well. We have 547 authors out of the 158k; thats well above our global population weight.
Not surprisingly these Irish are concentrated in the universities, as can be seen below where we show all institutes more than 10 members. The remaining numbers are mainly affiliated with either hospitals or with industry/company research centers.
|Trinity College Dublin||113|
|University College Dublin||109|
|University College Cork||56|
|National University of Ireland Galway||52|
|University of Limerick||33|
|Dublin City University||21|
|Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland (RCSI)||20|
|Tyndall National Institute at National University of Ireland, Cork||10|
Finally and not surprising, the fields of interest of these top scientists are concentrated in STEM. This is however a bit of a red herring as citation patters vary widely across fields and disciplines, and citation counts will always be lower for Arts and humanities than STEM. Nonetheless, it is interesting to see
|General & Internal Medicine||30|
|Dairy & Animal Science||25|
|Artificial Intelligence & Image Processing||21|
|Neurology & Neurosurgery||15|
|Networking & Telecommunications||14|
|Optoelectronics & Photonics||12|
|Biochemistry & Molecular Biology||12|
Finally the top 20 fields in Ireland, caveated above, show marked differences to the global top 20
|Ireland top 20||Global top 20|
|General & Internal Medicine||Neurology & Neurosurgery|
|Dairy & Animal Science||Applied Physics|
|Artificial Intelligence & Image Processing||Oncology & Carcinogenesis|
|Microbiology||Artificial Intelligence & Image Processing|
|Neurology & Neurosurgery||Biochemistry & Molecular Biology|
|Applied Physics||Cardiovascular System & Hematology|
|Networking & Telecommunications||Networking & Telecommunications|
|Analytical Chemistry||Developmental Biology|
|Optoelectronics & Photonics||Microbiology|
|Biochemistry & Molecular Biology||Plant Biology & Botany|
|Surgery||Nuclear & Particle Physics|
|Biomedical Engineering||Organic Chemistry|
|Immunology||Endocrinology & Metabolism|
|Oncology & Carcinogenesis||General & Internal Medicine|
|Organic Chemistry||Optoelectronics & Photonics|
|Nursing||Mechanical Engineering & Transports|
So below we see the 7 day moving averages of daily new cases, deaths, hospitalisations and admissions to ICU. These are expressed as a % of the first wave peak.
Clearly this time is very differnet, thankfully. But, at a national level the response to a clearly very different situation is exactly the same.
Why is this time different, so far? A younger population is getting the disease, we are catching much more of it than in Spring so the case level is closer to true incidence, we have a culture of hand and respitatory hygine, travel in and around the county even absent lockdowns and so on is reduced, we know better how to treat the sick etc etc.
But the national policy response is the same – lock down, blame and scold the population, use the police as a threat; we dont have nuance we have a policy of …well I dont know what the policy is to be honest. Do you?
The absolute rolling clown show that is the travel “green list” shows very clearly that when it comes to how to navigate Ireland out of the pandemic induced mess, there is no plan. There is no plan for a plan. We live in a gelotopoicracy. Actually that is unfair, as when the clowns come out in the ring they have a well worked out routine, rather than winging it all the time forever. We have a governing body which has no plan. They don’t even pretend to have one. Having spent the crucial months of the pandemic selfindulging in a lanigan’s ball of peolitical kabuki the system now is asleep at the wheel, literally in some cases.Continue reading
Apparently Hugh is trained in Cognitive Anthropology. From his musings in BrexitCentral he never did any fieldwork in Northern Ireland. Its touchingly naive but ultimately bonkers stuff. Let us begin