Tag Archives: elections

Cognitive biases and Election 2016

news-voter-issuesThe electoral dust has finally settled, and from the wreckage of the coalition we can expect no further survivors. It was a case study in how to lose an election, a mixture of arrogance and tin-eared disconnect combined with a lurking bruised populace (or “whingers” as the Taoiseach would have us known) unwilling to believe that the recovery existed, never mind be kept going.

Behavioural economics has a fair degree of traction now as the driving paradigm of how we shoud interrogate the economy. It has perhaps not yet reached the point where it is the mainstream but it nonetheless has some very useful findings which shed light on the results. A year ago I wrote on the warnings from behavioral economics for the coalition. These warnings have come to pass. 

Continue reading

Advertisements

Taxes – You are Here (and its not where you think)

So the general elauction is in full swing. And the theme of GE2016 is “Irish taxpayers are uniquely, punitively, outrageously taxed, and thats causing all our trouble:. Pretty much every party, bar the courageous (in a Sir Humphrey Appleby way) Social Democrats are pledging to cut, slash, reduce….

Meanwhile, away from the fevered fantasies of Irish political parties, in the real world, this is where we are. Data from OECD Taxing Wages 2015, 2014 data : here

First, the total : the tax wedge, defined as  the difference between total costs to the employer (so including PRSI and other social security) vs what the employee gets (so including USC and PRSI). Oh, look….

taxwedge

Then tax on the average wage (a shade under €700 per week for 2014 from CSO data) by family type. Cash transfers here are the standard benefit packages such as childrens allowance or its equivalent.

single2kidsbenefitscouple1earnnokidsbenefitscouple1earn2kidsbenefits

Finally at different percentages of the average wage. Ireland is in red.

Screenshot 2016-01-31 08.51.57

 

Feeling overtaxed is fine. Claiming that we are, at least in the comparative sense, is not. Its not just a misreading, its a misrepresentation. We get the politicians we elect. If we elect people who look us in the eye and lie a hole in a pot, so be it.

What might radical politics look like in an Irish context?

So Renua has been born, a new Irish political party. New ideas and new blood are always good ideas in democracy, and even if there is not a whole pile of it evident so far the principle should be applauded.Their website and documents are full of rhetoric on a new kind of politics and a new set of ideas. Reading them I am not at all convinced that they are anything but a weakly brewed tea party lite, pro business and anti state, with what seem like parroted quasi-libertarian phrases at every turn. Maybe I am wrong.

What would, to my mind, a set of radical ideas look like? Here are some, very few of which I would imagine would be to the liking of the Renualistas. I’m sure that I could think of another 20 or 30 given time but these will do for a start.  A party that stood for these and which wasn’t tainted with decades of reneging on promises at the first whiff of the interior of a government Mercedes would be attractive to me. I have no idea to whom else they would be attractive but…

Continue reading

Im thinking of voting to retain the Seanad

Its strange to find oneself on the same side of a political argument as Fianna Fail. That’s now where I find myself with regard to the referendum to abolish the Seanad.

As an exercise in sheer political cynicism this referendum is hard to beat. Conceived by all accounts in a rush of political blood to the head to fill an empty season it sees parties engaging in volte face after volt face, playing ducks and drakes with the constitution for momentary political gain.

Fianna Fail say no to abolition. Having been in power since approximately the Jurassic period, they have over the years stuffed the Seanad with more political dinosaurs than one would find in a box set of Jurassic park but they now profess a desire for reform.

Sinn Fein were in favour of reform but are now against. I think.

Labour were also in favour of reform as late as 2009 producing a good piece on how this could be achieved.

There are many many reasons to abolish the Seanad. Forget the money for a moment – a working democracy requires politicians who can live on the wage, and who are well supported in terms of administrative and other capacity. Nobody seems to know how much it costs nor how much abolition will save.

Most people dont know who is in the Seanad. Just the other day I heard that Susan O’Keeffe, a really excellent journalist whom I had noticed had gone off the media, was in fact a S enator. Who knew. There are many many senators who pass through the chamber without troubling the world as to their existence as to senators. One whom I will not mention I was certain of as having died these many years past.  But many others, notably the university senators, are active. They do their job as legislators in bringing legislation to the floor. It is the government that as a matter of routine votes it down even when agreeing with it. This last year we have seen the following acts brought

  • Business Undertakings (Disclosure of Overpayments) Bill 2012 Ronan Mullen
  • Employment Permits (Amendment) Bill 2012 [Seanad] Fergal Quinn
  • Financial Stability and Reform Bill 2013  – Sean Barrett
  • Food Provenance Bill 2013 – Fergal Quinn
  • Mortgage Credit (Loans and Bonds) Bill 2012 [Seanad] Sean Barrett
  • Protection of Children’s Health from Tobacco Smoke Bill 2012. John Crown
  • Public Health (Availability of Defibrillators) Bill 2013 Fergal Quinn
  • Reporting of Lobbying in Criminal Legal Cases Bill 2011 John Crown
  • Seanad Electoral Reform Bill 2013. John Crown
  • Seanad, Bill 2013 [Seanad] [PMB] – Katherine Zappone and Feargal Quinn
  • Upward Only Rent (Clauses and Reviews) Bill 2013 – Fergal Quinn

Then there are the bakers dozen that the Taoiseach de Jure can appoint. Three words suffice to show how this works – Senator Eoghan Harris. But then there is Katherine Zappone.

It’s a rotten borough – leaving aside the university senators (and successive governments of all hues have refused to implement the 40 y old constitutional amendment to allow all graduates to vote leaving that franchise even more stunted and still the most representative)  and the taoiseachs nominees, they are elected by panels of county coucillors and a hodgepodge of other bodies on “panels”.  See the bottom of the page for a list. A rotten borough however should not in and of itself preclude either the election of good people nor the abandonment of the idea of elections. Reform the electorate is an alternative to abolishing the election.

The main reason though, apart from the fact that abolishing it would concentrate even more power legally as well as factually in the hands of the cabinet (the Dail being as dead a letter as the Seanad when it comes to holding said cabinet to account) , the Government seem not to be convinced. They refuse to put forward the man who thought this up, An Taoiseach, to debate. This is either an arrogant belief that it doesnt merit debate, or a feeling that the grounds given are sufficiently weak that even Michael Martin might shred them.

So, i’m thinking of voting to retain – that way we can at least debate reform having told the government we don’t want to be bounced into this. If the system is irreformable, then fine. But lets try first.

 

  • Administrative Panel     7 seats
  • Agricultural Panel         11seats
  • Cultural and Educational Panel   5 seats
  • Industrial and Commercial Panel  9 seats
  •  Labour Panel  11 seats

List of nominating bodies

  • Administrative Panel
    • Association of Municipal Authorities of Ireland
    • Central Remedial Clinic
    • Enable Ireland Disability Services
    • General Council of County Councils
    • Irish Deaf Society
    • Irish Kidney Association
    • Irish Wheelchair Association
    • Multiple Sclerosis Society of Ireland
    • National Association for the Mentally Handicapped of Ireland
    • People with Disabilities in Ireland

Agricultural PanelAgricultural Science Association

  • Central Fisheries Board
  • Dairy Executives’ Association
  • Irish Co-Operative Organisation Society
  • Irish Grain and Feed Association
  • Irish Greyhound Owners and Breeders Federation
  • Irish Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association
  • Munster Agricultural Society Company Ltd
  • National Association of Regional Game Councils
  • National Executive of the Irish live Stock Trade
  • Royal Dublin Society (RDS)

 

  • Cultural and Educational Panel
    • Aontas Múinteoirí Éireann
    • Association of Secondary Teachers Ireland (ASTI)
    • Bantracht na Tuaithe
    • Comhairle na dTréidlia
    • Comhaltas Ceoltóirí Éireann
    • Comhar na Múinteoirí Gaeilge
    • Comhdháil Náisiúnta na Gaeilge
    • Cónaidhm Éireannach na Múinteoirí Ollscoile
    • Conradh na Gaeilge
    • Council of the Bar of Ireland
    • Cumann Gairm-Oideachais in Éirinn
    • Cumann Le Seandacht Átha Cliath
    • Cumann Leabharlann na hÉireann
    • Dental Council of Ireland
    • Drama League of Ireland
    • Gael-Linn Teoranta
    • Gaelscoileanna Teoranta
    • Institute of Community Health Nursing
    • Irish Dental Association
    • Irish Georgian Society
    • Irish National Teachers’ Organisation
    • Irish Playwrights’ and Screenwriters Guild
    • Law Society of Ireland
    • Medical Specialists Limited
    • National Youth Council of Ireland
    • Pharmaceutical Society of Ireland
    • Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland
    • Royal Irish Academy
  • Royal Irish Academy of Music
  • Royal Society of Antiquaries of Ireland
  • Údarás na Gaeltachta

 

  • Industrial and Commercial Panel
    • Association of Advertisers in Ireland
    • Chambers of Commerce of Ireland
    • Chartered Institute of Logistics & Transport in Ireland
    • Construction Industry Federation
    • Cumann Aturnaethe Paitinní agus Trádmharcanna
    • Electrical Industries Federation of Ireland
    • Institute of Advertising Practitioners in Ireland
    • Institute of Bankers in Ireland
    • Institute of Certified Public Accountants in Ireland
    • Institute of Chartered Accountants in Ireland
    • Institute of Industrial Engineers
    • Institute of Professional Auctioneers & Valuers
    • Institution of Engineers of Ireland
    • Insurance Institute of Ireland
    • Irish Architects’ Society
    • Irish Auctioneers and Valuers Institute
    • Irish Business and Employers Confederation
    • Irish Computer Society
    • Irish Country Houses and Restaurants Association
    • Irish Exporters Association
    • Irish Hardware & Building Materials Association
    • Irish Hotel and Catering Institute
    • Irish Hotels Federation
    • Irish Planning Institute
    • Irish Road Haulage Association
    • Irish Tourist Industry Federation
    • Licensed Vintners’ Association
    • Marketing Institute of Ireland
    • Marketing Society Limited
    • National Off-Licence Association
    • Restaurants Association of Ireland
    • Retail, Grocery, Dairy and Allied Trades Association (RGDATA)
    • Royal Institute of the Architects of Ireland
    • Society of the Irish Motor Industry
    • Vintners’ Federation of Ireland
    • Wholesale Produce Ireland

 

  • Labour Panel
    • Irish Conference of Professional and Service Associations
    • Irish Congress of Trade Unions