Tag Archives: behavioral finance

Cognitive biases and Election 2016

news-voter-issuesThe electoral dust has finally settled, and from the wreckage of the coalition we can expect no further survivors. It was a case study in how to lose an election, a mixture of arrogance and tin-eared disconnect combined with a lurking bruised populace (or “whingers” as the Taoiseach would have us known) unwilling to believe that the recovery existed, never mind be kept going.

Behavioural economics has a fair degree of traction now as the driving paradigm of how we shoud interrogate the economy. It has perhaps not yet reached the point where it is the mainstream but it nonetheless has some very useful findings which shed light on the results. A year ago I wrote on the warnings from behavioral economics for the coalition. These warnings have come to pass. 

Continue reading

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Hyperbolics, Banks and Elections

There is an interesting opinion piece in the Irish Times today, by Michael Noonan, the finance minister.   It is being spun as “were going to get our money back from the banks”.   This is not the first or second time of course we have heard that we are going to get the money back, and it will not be the last.  We need to take enormous caution when interpreting what politicians say, especially when they talk about banks, and especially when they talk about banks in the run-up to an election. Continue reading

First Dublin Behavioral and Experimental Finance Symposium – Running Order

The first DBEF Symposium is to be held on 6 December 2014, in the Sutherland Center, 6th Floor, Arts Building, TCD.  The papers are noted below and will be presented by the underlined/italicised author. Complete papers and presentations, when available, will be linked here.

No fee applies to the conference but registration is required.  Each paper will be presented for a max of 30m , and a the conclusion of the session papers questions will be taken.

0915-0930 : Introduction to the colloquium and to the Journal of Behavioural And Experimental Finance Brian Lucey and Michael Dowling

0930-1100 Session 1 Placement

  1. Frenemies: Information Sharing Among Competing Fund Managers Bernard  Ganglmair U Texas at Dallas ; Alex Holcomb & Noah Myung  Naval Postgraduate School and University of Virgini
  1. Under-pricing of IPO’s in Experimental Markets Sascha Füllbrunn, Radboud University Nijmegen Tibor Neugebauer University of Luxembourg Andreas Nicklisch University of Hamburg

1115-1245 Session 2 People

  1. CEO Social Status and Corporate Acquisitiveness Michael Dowling, Liam Gallagher and Yulia Plaksina, Dublin City University
  1. Trading and beliefs in markets with information flows – does market micro-structure matter? Caroline Bonn & Florian Lindner University of Innsbruck, David Schindler , Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich

1345-1500 Session 3 Products

  1. The “Objective Valuation” Task: A New Technique for the Study of Product Complexity Pete Lunn, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) & Trinity College Dublin
  1. Behavioral Aspects of the Regulation of retail gasoline prices Martin Angerer  & Georg Peter U Liechtenstein

1500-1700 Session 4 Psychology

  1. Taking Individual Financial Responsibility Dirk Brounen, Kees Koedijk, and Rachel Pownall Tilburg University
  1. Psychological Barriers in Traded Metal Prices Mark Cummins and Michael Dowling, Dublin City University Brian Lucey Trinity College Dublin
  1. Risk preferences, finance and constitutional change Liam Delaney, Stirling

1700-1800 Keynote   Behavioral Finance From the Mind to the Market  Greg B. Davies, Barclays

ESRC Seminar on People Risk in Financial Services – Final Running Order

The ESRC seminar series on people risk (being organized by this motley crew)  rolls into Dublin next Wednesday. The final running order is as below.

For more details and to register see here: REGISTER

The seminar is free, and coffee/tea and a light lunch will be provided. Venue is Institute of Bankers, IFSC.

0945-1015 Registration

1015-1030 Welcome and Introduction : Brian Lucey

1030-1115 Framing effects in reasoning about the moral acceptability of risky choices (Ruth Byrne, TCD School of Psychology)

1115-1200 – From Hubris to Nemesis ; Irish Banks, behavioral biases and the crisis (Michael Dowling, DCU Business School)

1200-1245 – The meaning of leadership integrity (Mary Keating, TCD Business School)

1245-1330 – Light lunch

1330-1415 – Board Directors – What can we expect from them? (Blanaid Clarke, TCD Law School)

1415-1515 – KEYNOTE  – Systemic People Risk : The Final Frontier? (Dr Pat McConnell, Macquarie School of Management)

1515-1600 – Roundtable discussion on future research and policy directions (Moderator, Brian Lucey)

 

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance : First Issue

JBEF FINAL Cover Design Aug32012The first issue a new journal is always an exciting time, the more so when one is the Editor.  Today we see such, with the launch of a new journal, with my good self as the Editor.  The aim of the Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance  is to provide a single place for the intersection of two distinct fields; finance (in the broadest sense) and behavioral/experimental approaches. The first few papers are now online

Finance is now mature as a discipline, and behavioral / experimental economics has achieved a solid status. Yet, despite growing usage of the experimental toolkit in finance and the growth of learned associations in the area no journal existed as an outlet dedicated to this endeavor. Similarly behavioral approaches have become common as lenses through which to view financial issues, and while there do exist some journals it is clear that this is a field that is underserved. Cynics will no doubt suggest that paper never refused ink, but the reality is that as knowledge expands so too does the need to publicise and critique it. The days when a learned person could encompass the leading edge of scientific thinking by reading the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society are long gone.

Academic peer reviewed journals are, for all their problems and issues, at the very core of how researchers communicate in the modern academy. This is likely to remain the case for a considerable period of time.  The quality and impact of a journal depends on its authors, its readers and on its editorial processes. I believe that this journal has the potential to very rapidly become a leading outlet.  I am fortunate to be supported by an extremely talented team at Elsevier, led by the publisher Jagna Mirska-Ghent. In many respects it was her vision that led to the creation of the journal, shepherded by Marc Chahin. The editorial board contains many persons who have authored key papers in behavioral and experimental finance, as well as industry representatives. It is, I believe, vital that a discipline such as finance, which in my view must be a supportive function of business not just a mere end in itself, we in the academy keep in regular touch with industry and vice versa. The editorial board and I warmly welcome submissions from industry.

This first issue contains papers that I believe give a good indication of the breadth we wish to cover in the journal.   We welcome papers that address questions in corporate finance, asset pricing, financial econometrics, international finance, personal financial decision making, macro-finance, banking and financial intermediation, capital markets, risk management and insurance, derivatives, quantitative finance, corporate governance and compensation, investments, market mechanisms, SME, microfinance and entrepreneurial finance, where such research is carried out with a behavioral perspective and/or is carried out via experimental methods. Social and management sciences cannot be effectively investigated with one approach only, and there is no one correct model nor method. In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis modern economics, macro and finance in particular, have come under well justified criticism for too narrow a focus both in terms of approach and model. We trust that over time this journal will assist in creating a more open environment

So what is in the first issue? Over the next few days papers will start to appear on the site. With a plea towards  openness. Aggarwal and Goodell, in their paper, note that in finance and to some extent in accounting researchers need to look for inspiration beyond where we have traditionally looked. The role of national culture as a mediating factor in exchanges is well accepted in many social sciences, but is only very recently being introduced in finance. They plea for this gap to be filled showing how cultural perspectives have greatly aided international business and management scholarship.

Two papers review historical aspects of behavioral finance. Branch draws parallels with institutionalism, the failure of which to thrive despite having some decades where it was seen as the wave of the future should suggest to us that nothing is given. Although Thaler (1999) may be right that in the end there will be no behavioral finance as “economists will routinely incorporate as much behavior into their models as they observe in the real world”, the failure of institutionalism should give us pause.  Larkin delves much further back into history and philosophy, reminding us that it is in fact only relatively recently that the centrality of the human was sidelined in economics. Finance as an outgrowth of economics suffered due to it coming to growth just at the time that the human was least integrated in economics.

Seiler shows how money illusion, in a real estate setting, impacts on bubble formation. He demonstrates that with careful framing this money illusion can be mitigated.  The inflation and collapse of real estate bubbles has been a recurrent feature and one that arguably precipitated many aspects of the crisis, and any paper that sheds light on how to slow the formation of a future bubble should be warmly welcomed.

Fullbrunn and Haruvy , and also Sonsino and Shavit provide us with experimental papers. Fullbrunn and Haruvy shows how dividend signaling emerges in a market subject to takeover bids, a variant of the investment game.  Sonsino and Shavit examines the effect of the financial crisis on portfolio formation, finding that the “misperception of risk” issue raised by Shefrin dominates the thinking of investors.

Superstition should, in traditional finance, have little if any role to play in the pricing of stocks.  Despite this there have been numerous papers that have demonstrated some influence. Auer and Rottmann investigate  two such issues – the Friday the 13th effect and tetraphobia (fear of the number 4). They find mixed evidence but conclude that in their sample of Asian markets there is little strong support for superstition influencing the markets .

We conclude the first issue with two papers on sentiment. Pownall and Borgers paper is conceptually linked to Sonsino, in that both examine attitudinal impacts on investment. They find, using Dutch data, that investment in socially responsible stocks emerges less as a rational economic decision and more as a way to show an individuals solidarity with the aims of the funds. Brooks et al also examine sentiment, around disposals, finding that investors focus on the announcements rather than on the reportage of the announcements.

Thaler, Richard H. “The end of behavioral finance.” Financial Analysts Journal (1999): 12-17.

Link

From Hubris to Nemesis: Irish Banks, Behavioral Biases, and the Crisis

This paper, with Michael Dowling of DCU, takes a look at the behavioral aspects of Irish banks over the crisis period. It is forthcoming in Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, next march. A final version can be downloaded from the link.

Abstract

“The collapse of the Irish economy, still ongoing after five years, has its roots firmly in the banking sector. Lax risk management, aided by poor board oversight and behavioral biases among senior executives, is now viewed as one of the primary causes of the over- lending during the ‘Celtic Tiger’ years which fueled the excessive growth in credit and subsequent banking implosion, eventually resulting in all Irish banks ending in state ownership. We approach the causes of the Irish banking sector collapse from a behavioural perspective of the role of Boards of Directors in bank risk management, and then proceed to explore the likely presence of behavioral biases among senior executives in Irish banks. The Irish context provides a pertinent case study of what can happen when hubris and associated behavioural biases take control of a bank’s risk management strategy.”

A New Journal – Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance

JBEF FINAL Cover Design Aug32012

A New Journal

Journals, for good or ill, represent the preeminent mode of scholarly communication. Publications count, in tenure, research evaluations and as a metric of research activity. Despite alternatives emerging such as post hoc refereeing, the double blind reviewed journal retains its gold standard, and will do for many many years.  Although there are  many journals, the scope, breadth and depth of finance continues to expand. So today we see a new journal.

The Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance is aimed at providing authors in these fields with a high quality outlet. There is at present no state of art high-level publication where one can go to obtain up to date examples of quality work in the areas of experimental and behavioral finance. The field is scattered. Bringing it together will, we can hope, act as a  useful resource for scholars, both those active in the field and those interested in how the area impacts.  There are many high quality existing journals that cover experimental economics or behavioral finance but none that act as a natural locus for both.

Experimental finance in particular is growing, with the Society for Experimental Finance having been established in the last number of years.  We believe that creating a journal that is open to experimental treatments of finance subjects will, we hope, generate interest in carrying out such.  At this juncture we  see behavioral and experimental approaches as lenses or methodologies through which to view issues and as such the journal will allow a broad perspective on an increasingly fragmented field. At the limit I agree wholeheartedly with Thaler.

I predict that in the not-too-distant future, the term “behavioral finance” will be correctly viewed as a redundant phrase. What other kind of finance is there? In their enlightenment, economists will routinely incorporate as much “behavior” into their models as they observe in the real world. After all, to do otherwise would be irrational.

We might add to this that finance, as a cognate discipline to economics and accounting, must adopt more scientific approaches to its investigations and must adopt a broader methodological perspective. Economics has seen major advances in adopting experimental approaches and finance is fast doing so. This can only assist in the rigor of our researchers. We are not yet at that shining city on the hill which Thaler saw in 1999, but in the interim I hope that this journal will aid in moving us towards it.

Some may well suggest that we have enough journals, and why start one especially as the top papers will always go to the top journals. A number of points need to be made. First, the existence of better (whatever that means in this context) journals does not make redundant the existence of others. That we have the Sistine Chapel does not make further paintings irrelevant. There is scope for quality product which for whatever reason does not get into or fit the top journals. Second, no journal is born ‘top’. Establishing  a journal is an act of calculated business and hope. The business is that there is a market, the hope is that the board and the authors will drive forward the reputation of the journal to everyone’s advantage. That I intend to do to the best of my ability. Third, in this case there is a clear gap in particular in the experimental area, and that gap deserves to be filled. Also, while there are excellent journals in the behavioral finance area there is none from Elsevier, who have a stable of already top-flight finance journals and the publishing, publication and editorial network to support this new venture.

The Process

The idea for this journal had been discussed amongst a number of persons, both in Elsevier and in the academic community, for about 18m. In February I was asked to put a formal proposal to Elsevier, which I did. This contained the usual things one would expect – details of existing complementary or competing journals, papers published that might perhaps fit the journal, learned societies and conferences in the area, main loci of research etc. The initial response was good therefore we proceeded to get together a draft editorial board (see below) and a more complete proposal was put to Elsevier in April. This was approved in June and we have spent the summer refining the details of the guide for authors, the peculiarities of how we want papers submitted etc. This is and will always be a work in process – as an Editor I have come to understand that there is no right way to guide a paper other than to say “highest quality possible please”. Submission minutiae are important but are secondary to that. In short, expect changes as we engage with the process of generating papers from submissions.

Journal Aims and Scope

The aim of the journal is to publish high quality research in the fields of corporate finance, asset pricing, financial econometrics, international finance, personal financial decision-making, macro-finance, banking and financial intermediation, capital markets, risk management and insurance, derivatives, quantitative finance, corporate governance and compensation, investments, market mechanisms, SME and microfinance and entrepreneurial finance, where such research is carried out with a behavioral perspective and/or is carried out via experimental methods.

The area of behavioral finance and the related area of experimental finance are now fully accepted as mainstream approaches within finance. Behavioral and experimental finance therefore represent lenses and approaches through which we can view financial decision-making. The journal aims to provide a single source for the latest research in these areas. It is open to but not limited to papers which cover investigations of biases, the role of various neurological markers in decision-making, national and organizational culture as it impacts on those organizations financial decision-making, sentiment and asset pricing, the design and implementation of experiments to investigate financial decision-making and trading, methodological experiments,  and natural experiments. Although primarily empirical, we will be more than open to theoretical and methodological papers which cast light on behavioral and experimental topics, as well as to meta analyses, surveys and overviews.

Where is it and who is involved?

The journal site is here  at and papers can be submitted here. The Editorial Board at present consists of the following, but we are actively seeking other persons.

  • Ackert, Lucy  Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business, USA
  • Aggarwal, Raj The University of Akron, Ohio, USA
  • Asparouhova Elena N, University of Utah,  USA
  • Davies, Greg Head of Behavioral Finance and Investment Philosophy,  Barclays
  • Delaney, Liam   Stirling Management School, University of Stirling, UK
  • Dowling, Michael  Dublin City University Business School, Ireland
  • Goodell, John The University of Akron, Ohio, USA
  • Harmon, Colm  University of Sydney, School of Economics, Australia
  • Henker, Julie Bond University, Queensland, Australia
  • Holm, Håkan Jerker School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Sweden
  • Huber, Jürgen. The University of Innsbruck, Austria
  • Innocenti, Allesandro Experimental Economics Laboratory, University of Siena, Italy
  • Kim, Kenneth, Renmin University, Beijin, China.
  • Kirchler, Michael, The University of Innsbruck, Austria
  • Kramer, Lisa A. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, Canada
  • Lau, Morten, Copenhagen Business School Copenhagen Denmark
  • Leoni, Patrick L.  KEDGE, Marseille, France
  • Loncarski, Igor, Faculty of Economics Universty of Ljubjanja, Slovenia
  • Pompian, Michael Mercer Wealth Management, St Louis USA
  • Nawrocki, David, Villanova Univeristy, USA
  • Noussair, Charles, Tilburg University, Netherlands
  • Lunn, Pete  Economic and Social Research Institute Dublin, Ireland
  • Rabin, Matthew Brunel University, London UK
  • Pownall, Rachael , Maastricht University, Netherlands
  • Ricciardi, Victor.  Goucher College, Maryland, USA
  • Santoni, Alessandro, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Siena, Italy
  • Statman, Meir.  Santa Clara University, Santa Clara USA
  • Viole, Fred OVVO Financial Systems, Holmed, NJ USA
  • Wang, Mei. WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management , Berlin, Germany
  • Weitzel, Utz. Radboud University Nijmegen, the Netherlands
  •  Zhu, Ning. UC Davis and Shanghai Advanced Institute for Finance, China

Brian Lucey

Founding Editor

For : Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance

 

Longlist – not exhaustive – of possible  topics

  • Adaptive Market Hypothesis
  • Adjustment
  • Agent-Based Modeling
  • Altruism
  • Ambiguity
  • Ambiguity Aversion
  • Ambiguity Bias
  • Anchoring
  • Anchoring And Adjustment
  • Anomalies
  • Appropriation
  • Asset Market
  • Asset Market Experiments
  • Assimilation Error
  • Asymmetric Information
  • Asymmetry
  • Attachment Bias
  • Attention
  • Attribution Theory
  • Auctions
  • Availability
  • Bargaining Power
  • Behavioral Biases
  • Behavioral Corporate Finance
  • Behavioral Finance
  • Beliefs
  • Benchmarking
  • Betrayal Aversion
  • Between-Subjects Design
  • Bidding
  • Bounded Rationality
  • Break-Even Effect
  • Bubble
  • Calendar Effects
  • Certainty Effect
  • Charitable Giving
  • Circle Network
  • Classification Game
  • Cognitive Abilities
  • Cognitive Dissonance
  • Cognitive Heuristic
  • Communication
  • Compatibility
  • Competitive Behavior
  • Competitiveness
  • Conditional Cooperation
  • Confirmation Bias/Confirmatory Bias
  • Conservatism Bias
  • Context Dependence
  • Contrarian
  • Cooperation
  • Coordination
  • Coordination Game
  • Corporate Governance
  • Corporate Social Responsibility
  • Cournot Oligopoly
  • Credence Goods
  • Crowding-Out Effect
  • Culture
  • Day Of The Week Effect
  • Decision Making Under Risk
  • Dictator Game
  • Digit Ratio
  • Disjunction
  • Disposition Effect
  • Downside Risk
  • Dynamic Choice
  • Electronic Markets
  • Emotion Regulation
  • Emotions
  • Endowment Effect
  • Equity
  • Expected Utility Theory
  • Experience
  • Experimental Design
  • Experimental Design
  • Experimental Market
  • Experimental Measurement
  • Experimental Methodology
  • Experimental Methods
  • Experimentation
  • Experiments
  • False Discovery Rate
  • False-Consensus Effect
  • Familiarity
  • Field Experiment
  • Financial Decision Making
  • Financial Literacy
  • Flexibility
  • Framing
  • Free-Riding
  • Group Behavior
  • Guessing Game
  • Halloween Effect
  • Happiness
  • Health
  • Heterogeneity
  • Heuristic
  • Hidden Information
  • Hindsight Bias
  • Home Bias
  • Hormones
  • House Money Effect
  • House-Money Effect
  • Household Finance
  • Idiosyncratic Risk Premium
  • Illusion Of Control
  • Illusion Of Knowledge
  • Incentives
  • Incomplete Contracts
  • Individual Behavior
  • Individual Choice
  • Individual Investors
  • Individual Preferences
  • Inequality Aversion
  • Information Quality
  • Information Sharing
  • Information Uncertainty
  • Insurance
  • Intelligence
  • Interdependent Preferences
  • Investment Horizon
  • Investor Characteristics
  • Investor Sentiment
  • Knowledge Attitudes
  • Knowledge Of Economics And Finance
  • Laboratory Experiments
  • Learning
  • Learning From Peers
  • Leniency
  • Level K Model
  • Loss Aversion
  • Loss Aversion
  • Lottery Choice Experiment
  • Magical Thinking
  • Managerial Biases
  • Manipulation
  • Market Composition
  • Market Design
  • Market Efficiency
  • Market Efficiency
  • Matching Market
  • Matching Procedure
  • Meme
  • Mental Accounting
  • Mental Accounting
  • Mental Compartments
  • Mental Health
  • Meta-Study
  • Model Uncertainty
  • Momentum
  • Monetary Incentive
  • Monetary Punishments
  • Monitoring
  • Month-Of-The-Year Effect
  • Moral Suasion
  • Motivation
  • Multiple Equilibria
  • National Culture
  • Natural Experiment
  • Natural Language
  • Neurofinance
  • Newspaper Experiment
  • Non-Cognitive Skills
  • Non-Monetary Punishments
  • Optimism
  • Optimism
  • Over-Optimism
  • Overconfidence
  • Overconfident Behaviour
  • Overreaction
  • Parameter Uncertainty
  • Payoff Tables
  • Peer Groups
  • Persistence
  • Personality
  • Persuasion Effect
  • Plasticity
  • Political Equilibrium
  • Portfolio Choice
  • Portfolio Optimization
  • Portfolio Selection
  • Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift
  • Price Bubbles
  • Pricing Rules
  • Prisoner’s Dilemma
  • Procedural Fairness
  • Prospect Theory
  • Public Goods Experiments
  • Punishment
  • Race
  • Random Incentive System
  • Rationality
  • Real-Time Experiment
  • Real-Time Monitoring
  • Reciprocity
  • Redistribution
  • Reference Point
  • Regret Theory
  • Religion
  • Repeated Games
  • Representiveness
  • Reputation
  • Return Seasonality
  • Risk Aversion
  • Risk Awareness
  • Risk Diversification
  • Risk-Return Tradeoff
  • Salience
  • Sanctions
  • Seasonal Affective Disorder
  • Seasonality
  • Selection Into Experiments
  • Self-Interest
  • Self-Serving Bias
  • Sentiment
  • Session-Effects
  • Shorting
  • Simple And Compound Events
  • Sleep
  • Social Connections
  • Social Distance
  • Social Effects
  • Social Interaction
  • Social Networks
  • Social Networks
  • Social Norms
  • Social Preferences
  • Social Welfare Maximizing
  • Socially Responsible Investing
  • Somatic
  • Sorting
  • Stakeholder Theory
  • Status
  • Status Quo Bias
  • Strategic Behavior
  • Sunk-Cost Effect
  • Technical Trading
  • Tournament Incentives
  • Trading Behavior
  • Trading Performance
  • Trend Chasing
  • Trust Game
  • Ultimatum Game
  • Underreaction
  • Week-Of-The-Month Effect
  • Week-Of-The-Year Effect
  • Well-Being
  • Willingness To Compete
  • Willingness To Pay
  • Within-Subjects Design
  • Yes-No Game