A withdrawal from the Eurozone: Some Simulation Studies

Abstract

A withdrawal of a member state from the EMU due to market pressure has been a rather popular topic in the public debate in recent years. However, the effects of a withdrawal have been analysed quantitatively surprisingly little. Discussions have been concentrated on the crisis countries, but as the Finnish economic difficulties have deepened also on Finland. In the report, the effects of the potential withdrawal of Greece, one of the weakest economies in the EMU, is studied first. In addition we try to sketch the economic effects of a withdrawal of the relatively more bal- anced Finland. The analysis is made using an international econometric model (NiGEM), where the global economy and the individual economies are described in a rather detailed way based on economic theory and past economic behaviour. Benefits and costs, measured with effects on the GDP, of a withdrawal are related in the short and particu- larly in the longer run to the ability of labour markets to achieve sustainable wage agreements and to the ability to keep the financial markets calm.

via A withdrawal from the Eurozone: Some Simulation Studies with the NiGEM Model.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s