How accurate are stock analysts

Not very it seems

Irish Business Blog

Theres an interesting paper which I linked to here . The paper looks, over the 2002-11 period, at the accuracy of equity analysts target prices. Irish analysts are included.

Among other things it shows on a country by country basis the accuracy.

Heres the chart. The data are TPMET for those interested. I It measures if the target price was hit at any stage in the following 12 months. So 0.5 would be that 50% of price forecasts , up or down , were hit at any stage in the next year.

Higher values indicate lower accuracy. Oops.


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One thought on “How accurate are stock analysts

  1. Mark

    Peru seems to have the best analysts (the axis labels are distorted) … hmmmm … I’m not sure that nationality is any more valid a way of classifying equity-analysts than eyecolour or height. (+ I can’t find the paper at the link above)


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