A short Poll on house prices

On my blog today I posted about house prices. As a  followup, and to see if the polldaddy link works, here is a short poll on same.

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5 thoughts on “A short Poll on house prices

  1. Iam Yue

    In the absence of any known catalyst, there is no reason whatsoever why house prices are going to rise for the next decade. Of perhaps greater interest, is the manner in which the tame and compliant Irish media are once again failing to report the impact that the further falls in prices are going to have on Allied Irish Bank’s balance sheet; vis a vis the broader oncoming recession and the resulting downturn in construction. There is also the massive holding of deferred tax asstes which the bank currently has on its balance sheet, which in the event of said recession are worth nothing, and, which, in any event, will be taken out BASEL III.

    Reply
  2. Eddie wall

    I have seen some of your contributions on tv and agreed with some of your points.

    I do not think using the social outlets you are choosing will give any kind of valid results. It is highly skewed.

    More of the direction that house price will go has to do with the daily reporting we see in the media. If ever a bearer of news was more instrumental in making the news is hard to remember. One could be forgiven for thinking every journalist in the country is trying to buy a house and so is trying to the price asvlowvas possible first. A little like ” the markets believe” bullshit that is constantly foisted on is by the economic bullshit peddlers.

    Reply
    1. brianmlucey Post author

      Eddie
      It’s an interesting q about the causality of prices. Evidence here is that credit access influences. Now, to what extent do social trends also? We know they should but how would we model the influence?

      Reply
  3. Constantin Gurdgiev

    Good post, Brian, as usual.

    No rational or behavioral analysis of house prices can come up with an increase in prices this year. That much is clear. What is uncertain is: (1) what the equilibrium post-contraction price floor will be (in my view – prices will run at ca 3.3-3.5x median household income or around €160-170K average in the medium term equilibrium scenario) and (2) to what extent prices will overshoot target equilibrium on adjustment path (in my view, overshooting to the trough of 65-70% off peak would be rather conservative). There is a host of associated risks that are not factored in the above: (1) risk of significant economic contraction in 2012-2014 driven by external shocks (ranging from global to euro area) and/or domestic disruptions, (2) risk of a significant set back on mortgages defaults assumptions built into 2011 PCARs, (3) risk of large-scale deterioration in Exchequer performance in 2012-2013, leading to a full insolvency crisis, etc. All of these risks, as well as smaller ‘gray swans’ suggest that the property markets are likely to remain on downward trend for some time.

    Lastly, see my today’s Sunday Times article for estimated duration of the balance sheet recession through cycle for Ireland. We are nowhere near the bottom on this, if past history were to be our guide.

    Reply
  4. Pingback: Where do people see new house prices going? down…. | Brian M. Lucey

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