The OECD on Ireland, Iceland & the rest

So, the OECD have brought out a new set of forecasts. And very interesting they are too. Read them here. there is a nice set of comparative data here in excel format.

What do they say about ireland? “.Despite robust export growth, weak domestic demand and ongoing fiscal consolidation have prevented an economic recovery from unfolding so far. As domestic demand stabilises, a modest upturn of output is expected in the course of 2011, with some acceleration in 2012. The unemployment rate is likely to stay high, and core deflation to continue.” In other words, the slump is ongoing. This is in contrast to the overall OECD situation, where economies seem to be beginning to pull out, with unemployment beginning to fall and growth becoming more self sustaining.

Now, well aware of the GNP/GDP issue, and also well aware that Iceland had the (perhaps dubious) advantage of being able to devalue as well as having taken the choice NOT to fling its national treasure at the black hole of the banks, some pictures. Portugal, Ireland, Iceland, Greece and Spain

First, the headline GDP growth figures

then the unemployment figures

and finally General Gov Balance (borrowing/ saving by govt) again as a % GDP.

Remember all that talk in 2009 and 2010 from Brian Lenihan, that Ireland was not Iceland…? Yeah, right Brian.